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When strategic thinking fails

Just some random thoughts I had today after two very productive meetings, one with our program leader, and later with my thesis group. (it's amazing how productive these meetings are compared to previous assignments which offered much less flexibility and opportunity to learn on our own)

If it is true that everyone is already thinking strategically, in that they are moving toward a goal (either explicit or implied) but we also know that everyone is not moving strategically in a way that promotes social and ecological sustainability, what does that mean for the thesis question? How can strategic thinking increase people's ability to identify actions that can move them closer toward sustainability?

If I try to answer it now, I guess I would say that strategic thinking by itself does not move us toward sustainability. Strategic thinking is something that we all do naturally, regardless of the direction it is taking us. The only way it can move us toward social and ecological sustainability is if the goal, or "vision", is sustainable. In a perfect world, this vision would not have to be spelled out or analyzed, it would be just as ubiquitous as the unsustainable vision most of us are currently following, unknowingly, and even against what we think are our values. This is not a perfect world however, and we have an idea of success which does not stand up when compared to what science tells us is the only way to be successful. Since the lack of that vision is the only thing that differentiates the results of the strategic thinking that we all do, helping people to look critically at that vision and to develop a vision that is in line with what they would like their values to be, is "how" strategic thinking can move people toward sustainability.

The challenge then becomes "how can we help people to create a vision in line with their perceived values?"

We have spent a great deal of time over the past few months talking about creating shared visions of success, but what has never been talked about is how. We have never mentioned how helpful deconstructing an organization's or person's, current vision would be. It's frightening. It's one thing to think about what you would like the world to be like, and what you think you value, but imagine taking a close look at everything you do and why you do it, and then extrapolating from that just what the true vision you are following is... identifying what the real values that drive those decisions are. I'm guessing it aint pretty.

But then, maybe it's not a matter of people being out of touch with their values and the vision that really guides them. Maybe people truly are basing their actions on the "good" visions they believe in. Maybe people really are moving toward an explicit vision of success which they have thought about and aligned with their values. Is it still possible for strategic thinking to fail?

I would guess that it is. In this case it comes down to information and misinformation. If the person is making their actions strategically, with the end in mind, but do not have both a sound understanding of the physical limitations of the earth, and system dynamics, their carefully constructed vision may actually be taking them in the wrong direction, doing more harm than good, even if they are guided by a beautiful set of values.

So, bringing these thoughts back to the thesis. The answer I would expect to find for our question:

How can strategic thinking increase people's ability to identify actions that can move them closer toward sustainability?

Strategic thinking is something we all do anyway, and it can increase people's ability to identify actions that move them close toward sustainability if:

  1. A vision of success where understanding of sustainability is valid and in line with the real constraints of the physical system we are a part of.
  2. People have a basic understanding of system dynamics... realizing that every action has far reaching effects, many of which are unpredictable.

Without either one of these, our natural inclination toward strategic thinking has the potential to cause much more harm than good, because it will be taking them, and society, in directions which are not inline with their expressed values.

Is this a hypothesis I am somehow trying to prove? Does it even need to be proved?

Comments about When strategic thinking fails

interesting idea, but to what extent do you consider thinking strategic? I guess we are all making actions because of some idea we have about how the world is, but is that what is strategy? I think that basically people are stupid (I know it is a mean word, but I can't think of a nice word to say what I mean) and people do things without no plan in mind. The only thing they have is accepted idea that our government or teachers or TV telsl to us. They base their choice on what they are told to do, not on a vision.

Posted by: Johan at February 6, 2005 12:03 AM

It seems to me: by default, we do all think strategically, but the innate goal of this strategy tends is to multiply in the world as it is now. (Perhaps this does not fall under the definition of strategy in your thesis--guess this is more just a random comment.) It takes concious effort to extend, to project to the future, to enter the realm of sustainability, to not just mulitply but sustain/improve the human race. On the whole, we are monkeys. Case in point, I'd gladly give 10% of my juice to view photos of people as beautiful as Tomoe.

Posted by: Lance at February 8, 2005 12:42 AM


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